Category: Uncategorized
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I will review Forecasting Methods and Applications by Spyros Makridakis et al. here.
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“A forecasting model is a formalized description of the relationship between what we observe has happened in the past and what we then think may happen in the future.” Jennifer L. Castle et al.
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A free book on forecasting with Python is available online.If you’d like to learn the foundations of forecasting, take a look at:https://otexts.com/fpppy/
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How is value distributed within a day, a week, a month, a season, or a year? I like this question because it sharpens the analysis of spot prices. The total value across the entire period is normalized to 1 (or 100%), making it possible to examine how much of the total value is represented by…
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“Transformations such as logarithms can help to stabilize the variance of a time series. Differencing can help stabilize the mean of a time series by removing changes in the level of a time series.” Transformations such as logarithms help stabilize the variance of a time series by reducing heteroscedasticity, while differencing removes trends and level…
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grok: “An Hourly Price Forward Curve (HPFC) is a high-resolution forward price curve specifically constructed for electricity markets, providing expected (or market-implied) electricity prices for each individual hour into the future — often from day-ahead out to several years ahead (commonly 3–5+ years). It serves as one of the most important building blocks in modern…
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I will review several chapters of Forecasting: Principles and Practice by Rob J. Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos.
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“Commodity price risk is an important element of the world physionomy at this date” “Every commodity is traded on a spot market.” “A need for standardization in terms of quantity, quality, delivery date emerged and led to the establishment of the New York Cotton Exchange (NYCE) in 1842″ “Let us observe that the fact that…
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My first review will cover several chapters of Commodities and Commodity Derivatives: Modeling and Pricing for Agriculturals, Metals and Energy by Hélyette Geman.
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I will read and review one book or long article every sixty days that covers the fundamentals of electricity price forecasting and price forward curve construction.
Electricity Notes 